From great anticipation of history to the ultimate disappointment.
That was the gamut of my Friday as I gathered myself to prepare to preview what was to have been a potentially historic day of racing. However, all that changed mid-Friday morning when Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner I'll Have Another was declared out of Saturday's Belmont Stakes with a bruised tendon sustained reportedly during a routine gallop on Friday. Instead of waiting on history, Saturday has now turned into just another big day of racing.
Having said that we can look at this two ways. First from the perspective of a fan who is dying to see a Triple Crown winner, the ultimate emotion is sadness and in my case sickness. It has been 34 years, and I truly thought that we would see I'll Have Another finish the sweep on Saturday. Tactically speaking, he could have been placed anywhere in the race; as far as distance capabilities, they were without question as this guy was bred to run longer than this. As I type this preview, my stomach is still in knots with this stunning development and I dont know how long it will take for me to get over the disappointment of not seeing I'll Have Another trying to etch his name amongst the greats of racing.
But I must soldier on, and it is for you my readers that I do so.
The second perspective of this development is from the gambling mind. With I'll Have Another out of the Belmont, the chances for a big payday just shot through the roof. Had the favorite not been withdrawn, we would be looking at a very short priced payoff. Now the chances for a nice hit go up a bunch.
There is a very solid supporting stakes ledger that precedes the Belmont and I will attempt to make a profit for the 2012 Triple Crown. I have $536.20 from the $1000 budget that I started with on Kentucky Derby Day. I am planning on a big day of profiting with the Belmont card including the $1 million guaranteed Pick 6 and also a $1 million guaranteed Pick 4.
Tune in on Saturday morning for the Three Tailgaters show with Ken Trahan and Ed Daniels on WGSO-990-AM. I will be on with them at 11:30 to dissect the Belmont Stakes and offer up my thoughts of what happened on Friday with I'll Have Another. More importantly I now have an opportunity to dish out another winning exacta to Ed just like the one I gave out in the Preakness. I am confident that I will have the right combination for the Belmont and I am pretty sure it will be a solid payoff. Without any further adieu here is my look at the Belmont Day card.
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Belmont Park - June 9, 2012
Race 6 - 2:34 PM Exacta, Trifecta, Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (6-8), Pick 6 Races (6-11) Daily Double Wagers
Purse $100,000. For Three Year Olds. No nomination fee. $1,000 to enter, starters to receive a $750 rebate. A supplemental nomination fee of $200 may be made at time of entry. The Purse to be divided 60% to the owner of the winner, 20% to second, 10% to third, 5% to fourth, 3% to fifth and 2% divided equally among the remaining finishers. Weight 123. Non-winners of a Sweepstakes at a mile or over since April 1, 2012 allowed 2 Lbs. Three Races, 4 Lbs. (Maiden, claiming, starter and restricted allowance races not considered in allowances) A presentation will be made to the winning owner. Closed Saturday, June 2, 2012 with 37 Originial Nominations and 1 Supplement. One And One Sixteenth Miles.
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Owners: 1 - Starlight Racing; 2 - DiRienzo, Orlando, Wachtel Stable and Brous Stable; 3 - Kenneth L. and Sarah K. Ramsey; 4 - Bluegrass Hall LLC; 5 - Campbell, William, A.; 6 - J.W. Singer LLC; 7 - Darley Stable; 8 - Pell, Richard, C.; 9 - Klaravich Stables, Inc. and Lawrence, William H.
Breeders: 1 - Elisabeth Alexander; 2 - Dr. & Mrs. Thomas Bowman & Rebecca Davis; 3 - Kenneth L. Ramsey & Sarah K. Ramsey; 4 - Bluegrass Hall, LLC; 5 - Glencrest Farm LLC; 6 - Royal Pegasus; 7 - Darley; 8 - B. P. Walden Jr. & H. G. King III; 9 - William Graves & Dennis Lynch
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This overnight stakes contest kicks off the parade of stake races on Belmont day and most of the betting public will gravitate to Teeth of the Dog, your early favorite at 2-1. That line is based on his one paced 5th place finish in the Preakness. What is a very positive sign is there is a big rider switch as Joel Rosario takes the reins. If you want to try and beat this guy there are some alternatives to choose from.Inflation Target is one to consider if you want to use the horse for course angle. He has 1 run over this course and that may be advantageous. Skyring comes in off two consecutive wins with his most recent triumph in the James Murphy at Pimlico on the Preakness undercard. Politicallycorrect is an interesting possibility as he has Mario Guitierrez aboard who I am sure will try to make something out of this trip to New York after the tough news of I'll Have Another. My Selections 1-Teeth of the Dog-rider switch in softer spot equals victory 2-Skyring-in form and has a chance at a price in this one 3-Inflation Target-has a race over this track and that will help Wagering Strategies $-1.00-Pick-3-(4,6/1,3,7/1,4)-$-12.00 $-2.00-Pick-6-(4,6/1,3,7/1,4/1,5/2,4,6,7/3,9,12)-$-228.00 |
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Belmont Park - June 9, 2012
Race 7 - 3:15 PM Exacta, Trifecta, Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (7-9), Grand Slam Races (7-10) Daily Double Wagers
Purse $400,000. A Handicap For Three Year Olds And Upward. No nomination fee. $4,000 pass the entry box. A supplemental nomination fee of $4,000 may be made at any time prior to the publication of weights. All supplemental nominees will be required to pay the entry fee. All starters including supplements to receive a $2,000 rebate. The purse will be divided 60% to the winner, 20% to second, 10% to third, 5% to fourth, 3% to fifth and 2% divided equally among remaining finishers. A trophy will be presented to the winning owner. Closed Saturday, May 26, 2012 with 25 Nominations. Six Furlongs.
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Owners: 1 - Narlinger, Dennis; 2 - Darley Stable; 3 - Klein, Alan and Lebherz, Philip; 4 - Butzow, Barry and Westrock Stables LLC; 5 - MAT Stables, LLC; 6 - Shivananda Racing; 7 - Repole Stable; 8 - Zayat Stables, LLC
Breeders: 1 - Swordlestown Stud; 2 - Stonerside Stable; 3 - Dr. Rodney Orr; 4 - Destinaire Farm; 5 - Adena Springs; 6 - Thomas/Lakin; 7 - Richard Rowan; 8 - Oakbrook Farm
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A contentious renewal of this race beckons and there a myriad of ways to go here. The early favorite is Smiling Tiger at 5-2 and he comes in off a subpar return in the Churchill Downs handicap on Derby day in where he finished 5th. But that was his first out of 2012 and you have to think he should move forward off of that race. Giant Ryan has not been seen since his 5th place run in the Golden Shaheen on Dubai World Cup night. Although he should be forwardly placed, he has other speed with which to contend and that could compromise him here. Caixa Electronica wheels back off a 4th place finish in the Grade 1 Met Mile behind Shackleford and Caleb's Posse 12 days ago. The turnback in distance helps and he could fall into a perfect trip here. Pacific Ocean has not been seen since winning the Vernon Underwood at Hollywood Park back in November and this sure is an interesting choice of races to make your comeback. Rather than stay on the West Coast they elect to ship East and he to me is the most intriguing horse here. My Selections 1-Pacific Ocean-gonna take a shot with this one here 2-Caixa Electronica-short rest but very live in this one 3-Smiling Tiger-much better than last suggests Wagering Strategies $-20.00-Win-1-$-20.00 $-1.00-Pick-3-(1,3,7/1,4/1,5)-$-12.00 |
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Belmont Park - June 9, 2012
Race 8 - 3:59 PM Exacta, Trifecta, Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (8-10), Pick 4 (.50) Races (8-11) Daily Double Wagers
Purse $500,000. For Fillies And Mares Three Years Old And Upward. No nomination fee. $5,000 to pass the entry box. A supplemental nomination fee of $10,000 in addition to the entry fee may be made at any time prior to the closing of entries. All starters including supplements to receive a $2,000 rebate. The purse will be divided 60% to the winner, 20% to second, 10% to third, 5% to fouth, 3% to fifth and 2% divided equally among remaining finishers. Weights Three-year-olds, 116 Lbs.; Older, 123 Lbs. Non-winners of a Grade 1 twice in 2011-12 or a Grade 2 twice on the turf in 2012 allowed 3 Lbs.; A Grade 1 in 2011-12 or a Grade 2 in 2012, 5 Lbs. (Maiden, claiming, starter and restricted races not considered in allowances). Trophies will be presented to the winning owner, trainer and jockey. The New York Racing Association reserves the right to transfer this race to the Main Track. In the event that this race is taken off the turf, it may be subject to downgrading upon review by the Graded Stakes Committee. Closed Saturday, May 26, 2012 with 23 Nominations. (If the Stewards consider it inadvisable to run this race on the turf course, this race will be run at One Mile on the main track.). One Mile. (Turf)
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Owners: 1 - Jones, Jr., Frank, L.; 2 - Georgica Stable; 3 - Fittocks Stud; 4 - Phillips Racing Partnership; 5 - Hamilton, Emory, A.; 6 - Oxley, John, C.; 7 - Three Chimneys Racing LLC and Lordship Stud
Breeders: 1 - Frank Jones; 2 - Patrick Cassidy; 3 - Fittocks Stud; 4 - Phillips Racing Partnership; 5 - Emory A. Hamilton; 6 - Nancy Shuford; 7 - Larry Stratton
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This race begins the one million dollar guranteed late Pick-4 which culminates with the Belmont Stakes. The heavy favorite here is Winter Memories; now that I'll Have Another has scratched out of the Belmont, most will take a stand with single this incredibly talented filly. But I am here to advise that may not be the most prudent idea. Winter Memories has an incredible turn of foot but in this field which includes Hungry Island who split decisions with Winter Memories, the room for error is small. Another fact is the pace scenario is not in favor of Winter Memories. However having said that, this favorite is unbeaten at Belmont. Hungry Island comes off an impressive victory in the Churchill Downs Distaff Mile on Derby day and she ought to produce another strong effort here. Her trainer Shug McGaughey admittedly made mistakes with her and he thinks she is a top tier filly. Based on her last out I would think she looks the part Tapitsfly will have the advantage as far as the pace scenario goes as she will be on or near the lead in this contest. Tapitsfly finished 2nd to Hungry Island in the Churchill Downs Distaff Mile but the pace makeup gives her a shot to reverse the decision. Also consider that her trainer Dale Romans scratched out of a softer spot last week at Churchill Downs to run in this spot. That should give confidence to those who think she can win. My Selections 1-Winter Memories-overcomes disadvantage and keeps her Belmont record intact 2-Tapitsfly-will be the one to catch and Ramon Dominguez knows this place well 3-Hungry Island-can she duplicate her last out as it was impressive, she figures Wagering Strategies $-1.00-Pick-3-(1,4/1,5/2,4,6,7)-$-16.00 $-1.00-Pick-4-(1,4/1,5/2,4,6,7/3,9,12)-$-48.00 |
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Belmont Park - June 9, 2012
Race 9 - 4:43 PM Exacta, Trifecta, Super (.10) Pick 3 Races (9-11), Daily Double Wagers
Purse $400,000. For Three Year Olds. No nomination fee. $4,000 to pass the entry box. A supplemental nomination fee of $4,000 in addition to the entry fee may be made at any time prior to the closing of entries. All starters including supplements to receive a $2,000 rebate. The purse will be divided 60% to the winner, 20% to second, 10% to third, 5% to fourth, 3% to fifth and 2% divided equally among remaining finishers. 123 Lbs. Non-winners of $60,000 other than restricted stake in 2012 or $45,000 twice in 2012 allowed 2 Lbs.; $50,000 other than restricted stake, 4 Lbs.; $35,000, or three races, 6 Lbs. (Maiden, claiming, starter or restricted races not considered in allowances). A Trophy will be presented to the winning owner. Closed Saturday, May 26, 2012 with 35 Nominations. Seven Furlongs.
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Owners: 1 - Stonestreet Stables LLC; 2 - New Farm; 3 - Russo, Chuck; 4 - Reddam Racing LLC; 5 - Bourbon Lane Stable and Lynn, Wayne; 6 - Shivananda Racing; 7 - Adam, Donald, A.; 8 - Robison, J. Kirk and Judy; 9 - Klaravich Stables, Inc. and Lawrence, William H.; 10 - Horton, Willis, D.
Breeders: 1 - Sally Andersen; 2 - New Farm; 3 - Vossfeld Bloodstock Group, LLC.; 4 - Dennis Drazin; 5 - Oscar Penn & Eloise Penn; 6 - J M Stables, Inc.; 7 - Courtlandt Farm; 8 - Monticule; 9 - Stonecliff Farm; 10 - Gulf Coast Farms, LLC
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A very wide open renewal of the Woody Stephens will be your spread race as far as your multi-race wagers are concerned. The morning line favorite here is Hierro who has not run since winning the Derby Trial back in April at Churchill Downs. This is a strategic move by these connections, and this guy is working well for this contest. Also factor in that Hierro beat Paynter who has a big chance in the Belmont Stakes and will be tough. Trinniberg rightfully is going back to sprinting after a disasterous run in the Kentucky Derby and his sprint form was impeccable before the failed Derby experiment. Most will assume that Trinniberg will rebound and that may be the case but this is a pretty tight group of horses and it wont be easy. Bourbon Courage suffered his first loss in the Derby Trial in his most recent outing and maybe the mile distance was a bit much for him that night and perhaps the sloppy going did him in. Needless to say if the forecast holds true I suspect a big rebound in this spot as he can sit a perfect trip. Currency Swap got demolished in the Illinois Derby at Hawthorne and rebounded to post a solid win in the You and I Handicap at Belmont. He did take the Hopeful at Saratoga last year so he is not without credentials as far as a win candidate. My Selections 1-Bourbon Courage-taking a stab as I think this guy is better than last 2-Hierro-should be tough to leave off any kind of wagers in this spot 3-Trinniberg-the one to catch and if left alone he will be tough to handle Wagering Strategies $-1.00-Pick-3-(1,5/2,4,6,7/3,9,12)-$-24.00 |
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Belmont Park - June 9, 2012
Race 10 - 5:37 PM Exacta, Trifecta, Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (10-12) Pick 4 (.50) Races (10-13), Daily Double Wagers
Purse $500,000. A Handicap For Three Year Olds And Upward. No nomination fee. $5,000 to pass the entry box. A supplemental nomination fee of $10,000 may be made at any time prior to the publication of weights. All supplemental nominees to start will be required to pay the entry fee. All starters including supplements to receive a $2,500 rebate. The purse will be divided 60% to the winner, 20% to second, 10% to third, 5% to fourth, 3% to fifth and 2% divided equally among remaining finishers. Any horse that competes in both the Woodford Reserve Manhattan and The Man o' War will have their entry fee waived for the Man o' War. Trophies will be presented to the winning owner, trainer and jockey. The New York Racing Association reserves the right to transfer this race to the Main Track. In the event that this race is taken off the turf, it may be subject to downgrading upon review by the Graded Stakes Committee. Closed Saturday, May 26, 2012 with 24 Nominations. One And One Fourth Miles. (Inner turf)
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Owners: 1 - Sumaya U.S. Stables; 2 - Phipps Stable; 3 - Brous Stable and Wachtel Stable; 4 - Swift Thoroughbreds, Inc., Mackie Racing, Vintage Thoroughbreds LLC et al; 5 - Apostelos, Connie, M; 6 - Live Oak Plantation; 7 - Weiss, Roger, J.; 8 - Chatterpaul, Naipaul
Breeders: 1 - Haras Sumaya; 2 - Cynthia Phipps; 3 - Emory A. Hamilton; 4 - Haras Du Mezeray; 5 - Omega Farm, B.D. Gibbs Farm. LLC &Chancey Mill Farm; 6 - Live Oak Stud; 7 - Jay W. Bligh; 8 - Palides Investments N.V., Inc.
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The race before the Belmont finds an interesting collection of turf horses and although there is not a standout here as was in years past, this rendition offers up an opportunity to make a nice score. Hudson Steele comes off a solid win in the Dixie Stakes on the Preakness undercard and looks to continue his progression forward in this tougher contest. This horse may just be realizing his vast potential and could very well be good enough here. Brilliant Speed has every right to move forward off his 3rd place finish in the Woodford Reserve on Derby Day behind Little Mike who led every step of the way. This race presents a better scenario as there is enough gate speed signed up to help Brilliant Speed here. Brilliant Speed is a very well meant animal. Boisterous comes in off a nice win in the Fort Marcy Handicap at Aqueduct which gives him three wins in his last four starts and also an interesting nugget is that this guy is unbeaten at the mile and a quarter distance of this race.The class hike is interesting as this horse shows a touch of class with how he runs. Desert Blanc who was outnodded by Boisterous in the Fort Marcy has a right to improve off of that effort as it was his United States debut and also he should relish the added distance this race gives. My Selections 1-Brilliant Speed-slight lean in a real tough one to call 2-Desert Blanc-think he has a right to move forward 3-Boisterous-would be no surprise in this wide open heat Wagering Strategies $-1.00-Superfecta Box-(2,4,6,7)-$-24.00 $-40.00-Win-6-$-40.00 |
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Belmont Park - June 9, 2012
Race 11 - 6:40 PM Exacta, Trifecta, Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (11-13) Daily Double Wagers 2nd Half Brooklyn/Belmont Double
Purse $1,000,000. For Three Year Olds. By subscription of $600 each, to accompany the nomination, if made on or before January 21, 2012, or $6,000, if made on or before March 24, 2012. $10,000 to pass the entry box and $10,000 additional to start. All entrants will be required to pay entry and starting fees; but no fees, supplemental or otherwise shall be added to the purse. The purse to be divided 60% to the winner, 20% to second, 11% to third, 6% to fourth and 3% to fifth. Colts and Geldings, 126 Lbs.; Fillies, 121 Lbs. The winning owner will be presented with the August Belmont Memorial Cup to be retained for one year as well as a trophy for permanent possession and trophies to the winning trainer and jockey. One And One Half Miles.
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Owners: 1 - Magnolia Racing Stable LLC and Hidden Brook Farm; 2 - Magdalena Racing (Susan McPeek) and Mojallali Stables, Inc.; 3 - Chadds Ford Stable; 4 - Shortleaf Stable, Inc.; 5 - Donegal Racing; 6 - Korina Stable; 7 - MeB Racing Stables LLC; 8 - Shivmangal Racing Stable, LLC; 9 - Zayat Stables, LLC; 10 - Bluegrass Hall LLC; 11 - Reddam Racing LLC; 12 - George and Lori Hall
Breeders: 1 - Mueller Thoroughbred Stable, Ltd.; 2 - Mojallali Stables, Inc.; 3 - Phyllis M. Wyeth; 4 - Brereton C. Jones; 5 - Phil Needham, Judy Needham &Bena Halecky; 6 - Stonewall Farm Stallions; 7 - Machmer Hall; 8 - Lavin Bloodstock & Leroy S. Close; 9 - Diamond A Racing Corp.; 10 - Bluegrass Hall, LLC; 11 - Harvey Clarke; 12 - K & G Stables
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Now we head on into the Belmont Stakes, now the Anticlimactic Stakes considering that I'll Have Another is not here to try and make history. With the scratch, the role of favorite is now Dullahan who finished 3rd in the Kentucky Derby. This race now affords an opportunity for a nice payoff. Street Life is an interesting longshot possibility as he comes in off a fast closing second place run in the Peter Pan. He is a deep closer and might be compromised by the pace scenario but can lay close if need be. Unstoppable U is the speed of this Belmont Stakes and his trainer Ken McPeek hopes to pull off another shocker as he did back in 2002 with Sarava who was a 70-1 shocker. This colt is taking a huge step up in class and if left alone he could hang around for more than a share. He might be one to think about for exotics wagers. Union Rags comes off a rough Kentucky Derby where he closed some ground to finish 7th and he was freshened for this race. The connections made a logical switch of riders as John Velasquez replaces Julien Leparoux here. The positive thing to see about this horse no matter win or lose throughout his career is he has never lost ground from the stretch to the wire. I have questioned this animal's ability to get the classic distances but in this field I would give this guy a look for all. Atigun is the second of the Ken McPeek runners here and this guy is another possible longshot to consider as he could fall into a good trip. Dullahan is now the favorite to win this race and a lot of conventional wisdom suggests he is the one to beat. I am not so sure of that because he possesses a low distance tomlinson rating which ideally suggests he cannot get the mile and a half. Remember he closed into a blitzing pace in the Derby and the fractions here will be nowhere near as fast. I think this guy is a huge underlay and I will let him beat me. Ravelo's Boy is one who has absolutely no chance to make any sort of impact here and is an easy toss-out. Five Sixteen is another to ditch off of any tickets as he has absolutely no chance here. Guyana Star Dweej like the two above him is one that will be nowhere on my wagering menu. Paynter is the wise guy horse of this Belmont Stakes as he comes in off an impressive win on Preakness day in an allowance race where he notched a Beyer figure of 106. His trainer Bob Baffert will look to close out a tough Triple Crown season by trying to win it with this guy and does have a good chance of doing so. Optimizer has danced every dance and has produced middling finishes in both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes. Just as I said prior to the Preakness, it truly befuddles me that this crew does not put this guy on the turf. I hope after this race they switch gears and do that with him. As far as this race goes, I think the absolute best for him is the back of the superfecta tickets. My Adonis hopes to give his connections back-to-back wins in Belmont Stakes after Ruler On Ice flew to a 28-1 upset win in last year's edition. The outer post is tough but this is such a long race giving ample time to get over and sit a trip. The fact that he was a late addition intrigues me. Why would you wait until this week to run? Maybe the connections know something we don't? On that premise, maybe he warrants a closer look in here. My Selections 1-My Adonis-with the defection of I'll Have Another I am looking for an upsetter 2-Union Rags-have been a critic of this guy but he is an absolute user in this one 3-Paynter-on numbers he is plenty fast enough it is a matter of seasoning here 4-Street Life-plods along for a share in a race devoid of early speed Wagering Strategies $-20.00-Win-12-$20.00 $-1.00-Exacta Box-(1,3,9,12)-$-12.00 |
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That is all for the look at the 2012 Belmont Stakes day card. I am using 456.00 of my budget looking to make a big score or two. I know this day will be tough without a chance for a Triple Crown but wherever you may be, do not be deterred. Go out and have a great day and make it a very profitable one.
I know this about how I attacked these races, if they hit then yours truly will be one happy man.
I will be back at you to recap the 2012 Triple Crown and offer up a scathing editorial of issues that were brought to light throughout this spring. I am taking a few days to gather my thoughts as I do not want be too reactionary. What you will see from me will hit at the very fabric of my sport but also no stone will be left unturned. I have a lot to say about how the mainstream media in some circles have treated this sport throughout this Triple Crown season.
Until then my loyal readers may your winners be plentiful and your wallets be fat.
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