The second leg of racing's Triple Crown is upon us as the 137th running of the Preakness takes place on Saturday.
I'll Have Another, the Kentucky Derby winner, will look to snatch another win and head to New York's Belmont Park to try and etch his name amongst the immortals who have swept a Triple Crown.
First-things-first...the Preakness to me is the most difficult of the three legs of the Triple Crown because of the quick turnaround from the Kentucky Derby and also a completely different style racetrack at Pimlico than at Churchill Downs.
There are some great supporting stakes that dot this Preakness Day card. I have a 825.50 pot to wager with following the Kentucky Derby two weeks ago. Below is my preview of the races preceding the Preakness and of course a insightful look at the Preakness itself as well.
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Pimlico - May 19, 2012
Race 8 - 3:12 PM EXACTA, 50 cent TRIFECTA & 10 cent SUPERFECTA / DAILY DOUBLE (RACES 8 & 9) 50 cent PICK 3 (RACES 8-9-10) 50 cent JACKPOT PICK 5 (RACES 8-9-10-11-12)
Purse $100,000. For Three-Year-Olds And Upward. By free subscription, $500 to pass the entry box, $500 additional to start, with $100,000 Guaranteed, of which 60% to, 20% to second, 10% to third, 6% to fourth, 3% to fifth and 1% to sixth. Supplemental nominations of $1,000 each will be accepted by Saturday, May 12, 2012 with all other fees due as noted. Trophy to owner of the winner. Nominations closed Tuesday May 8, 2012 with 42 nominations. Six Furlongs.
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Owners: 1 - Robert Abbo Racing Stable LLC; 2 - Robert Gerczak; 3 - Two Hands LLC; 4 - GSP Stable; 5 - Thomas J. Young; 6 - Dale Long; 7 - Westrock Stables LLC & Barry Butzow; 8 - Hillwood Stable LLC; 9 - Fitzhugh LLC; 10 - Lindy M. Redding
Breeders: 1 - Adena Springs; 2 - Carol Kaye-Garcia; 3 - Kidder, Cole & J & J Mamakos; 4 - New Farm; 5 - Thomas J. Young; 6 - Robert B. Trussell Jr.; 7 - Destinaire Farm; 8 - New Dawn Thoroughbreds & Aron Yagoda; 9 - Fitzhugh, LLC; 10 - Heaven Trees
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This race kicks off the Pimlico All Stakes Pick-5 and what a difficult contest to lead things off. Hamazing Destiny is your lukewarm early favorite at 7-2; he will be getting some class relief in here as he has chased much better in his recent form with the Churchill Downs handicap his last out two weeks ago. He should be coming from just off the pace and is very much one to watch. Ravalo won this race back in 2009 and finished 3rd in 2010. He was going to contest this race last year but missed out because of a minor injury. This 8-year old veteran is listed at 8-1 and has only one start this year where he finished last in an overnight stakes race at Aqueduct back in January; he emerged with a quarter crack on his foot but all systems are a go for this one. Bandbox is the locals' best chance to win as he has worked bullets for this race. Bandbox finished second in an allowance race at laurel and like Ravalo popped a quarter crack. As mentioned he is working great and seems logical. Immortal Eyes ran second in this race last year and probably is the one they will have to catch in this contest. My Selections 1-Immortal Eyes-the one to catch and with questions of others he looks solid to me 2-Hamazing Destiny-logically speaking the class drop should help so he also figures 3-Bandbox-slight step up in class but his worktab is impeccable coming in here Wagering Strategies $-40.00-Win-1 $-1.00-Pick-3-(1,7,8/1,9,10,12/1,5)-$-24.00 $-0.50-Pick-5-(1,7,8/1,9,10,12/1,5/3,5,9,11/6,7,9)-$-$-154.00 |
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Pimlico - May 19, 2012
Race 9 - 3:53 PM EXACTA, 50 cent TRIFECTA & 10 cent SUPERFECTA / DAILY DOUBLE (RACES 9 & 10) 50 cent PICK 3 (9-10-11)$1,000,000 GUARANTEE 50 cent PICK 4 (RACES 9-10-11-12)
Purse $100,000. For Three-Year-Olds. By subscription of $100. $500 to pass the entry box, $500 additional to start, with $100,000 Guaranteed, of which 60% to the winner, 20% to second, 10% to third, 6% to fourth, 3% to fifth and 1% to sixth. Supplemental nomination of$1000 each will be accepted by the usual time of entry with all other fees due as noted. Weight 122 Lbs. Non-winners of $60,000 at one mile or over, allowed 2 Lbs.; $50,000 at one mile or over, 4 Lbs.; $40,000 at one mile or over, allowed 6 Lbs. (Maiden, Claiming and Starter races not considered in estimating allowances). Trophy to the owner of the winner. Nominations closed Tuesday May 8, 2012 with 39 nominations. (If deemed inadvisable by management to run this race on the Turf course, it will be run on the main track at One Mile and One Sixteenth). One Mile. (Turf)
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Owners: 1 - Preston Stables LLC; 2 - Bluegrass Hall LLC; 3 - PTK LLC; 4 - Sagamore Farm; 5 - Shivmangal Racing Stable, LLC; 6 - Germania Farms, Inc.; 7 - Skeedattle Stable; 8 - AJ Suited Racing Stable; 9 - Terry Hamilton; 10 - West Point Thoroughbreds; 11 - MarchFore Thoroughbreds; 12 - Peachtree Stable
Breeders: 1 - Mrs. Arturo Peralta Ramos; 2 - Bluegrass Hall, LLC; 3 - Merrydale Farm Partners, 2003, LLC; 4 - Sagamore Farm, LLC; 5 - Guilherme Bombonato & Angela Bombonato; 6 - Hilbert Thoroughbreds, Inc. &Menard Thoroughbreds, Inc.; 7 - Skeedattle Associates; 8 - McCann & Associates Inc. & David E.Hager II; 9 - Chad Austin Reed; 10 - McCann Bloodstock; 11 - Stonewall Farm Stallions; 12 - Highfield Stock Farm, Margaux Farm LLC& et al
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This race kicks off the $1 million guaranteed late Pick-4 which culminates with the Preakness; this one may be a spread type race as there are a handful who can take this contest. Easy Crossing is your tepid favorite at 7-2 and comes in off a solid turf allowance score at Gulfstream. He is trained by renowned turf specialist Christophe Clement who has two horse in here. This is a race that Easy Crossing should play a major role. Achilles is the other runner sent here by Clement and is very highly regarded. He comes off a pair of wins out in California. Like Easy Crossing, he is one to respect. Done Talking ran in the Kentucky Derby where he was a non- threatening 14th, so his is an interesting spot off a such a difficult race. I wonder why he even ran in the Derby if his connections were thinking of trying the turf. This guy is bred for the grass but we shall see. Hammers Terror who campaigned in New Orleans this past winter is one also to watch as he comes off a third place effort on the Keeneland polytrack in the Lexington Stakes. Gold Megillah is also coming off the same race as Hammers Terror where this guy ran 4th in the Lexington. My Selections 1-Achilles-slight lean to this guy in an absolutely wide open contest 2-Hammers Terror-think turf should be this guy's strong suit 3-Easy Crossing-this guy is yet another in here that must be respected Wagering Strategies $-30.00-Win-12 $-1.00-Pick-3-(1,9,10,12/1,5/3,5,9,11)-$-32.00 $-1.00-Pick-4-(1,9,10,12/1,5/3,5,9,11/6,7,9)-$-96.00 |
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Pimlico - May 19, 2012
Race 10 - 4:36 PM EXACTA, 50 cent TRIFECTA & 10 cent SUPERFECTA / DAILY DOUBLE (RACES 10 & 11) 50 cent PICK 3 (RACES 10-11-12)
Purse $100,000. For Fillies And Mares, Three-Years-Old And Upward. By free subscription, $500 to pass the entry box, $500 additional to start, with $100,000 Guaranteed, of which 60% to the winner, 20% to second. 10% to third, 6% to fourth, 3% to fifth and 1% to sixth. Weights: Three-Year-Olds, 120 Lbs.; Older, 124 Lbs. Non-winners of $100,000 at one mile or over in 2012, allowed 2 Lbs.; $75,000 at one mile or over in 2012, 4 Lbs.; $60,000 at one mile or over in 2012, 6 Lbs. (Maiden, Claiming and Starter races not considered in estimating allowances). Trophy to the owner of the winner. Nominations closed Tuesday May 8, 2012 with 28 nominations. One And One Sixteenth Miles.
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Owners: 1 - Farnsworth Stables LLC; 2 - Briland Farm; 3 - Richard Santulli; 4 - David & Margaret Wimer; 5 - Natalie J. Baffert; 6 - R. Larry Johnson; 7 - Charles Dimino; 8 - Green Hills Farm Inc.; 9 - Michael Dubb, Bethlehem Stables LLC & Stuart Grant
Breeders: 1 - Brereton C. Jones; 2 - Briland Farm, Robert Mitchell &Stacy Mitchell; 3 - A. Lakin & Sons; 4 - Eico Stable; 5 - Big Pine Thoroughbreds & Adena Springs; 6 - R. Larry Johnson; 7 - Elk Manor Farm; 8 - Stud TNT; 9 - Runnymede Farm, Inc. & Catesby W. ClayInvestment LLC
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This renewal is one which promises to be a very tough contest as there are many angles to use here. One thing that we know is that there is a lot of speed signed up for this contest so theoretically find a late runner and you should be good to go. Absinthe Minded is the 8-5 favorite for this contest. It is understandable as this gal has chased the leaders of this division and acquitted herself well in those races. She was most recently seen in the La Troienne at Churchill Downs on Kentucky Oaks Day where she did not fire. But the quick turnaround suggests she didn't suffer any after effects from that contest. Awesomemundo is one who is an interesting contender as this will be her stakes debut but this filly is held in very high regard by her trainer Bob Baffert. After watching her in California, I would think this is a good spot to find out what they have. Canadian Mistress is a very interesting overlay chance at 6-1 as she has chased Awesome Maria who in my eyes is the best older filly in America this year. This gal did not disgrace herself in her two efforts against Awesome Maria and I don't see anyone of that caliber in here. Canadian Mistress is also cross entered in the Calder Oaks so that bears watching as to where she actually runs. Love and Pride is one of the many speedsters to run here and this gal comes off a 4th place effort in the Sixty Sails at Hawthorne where she built up a big lead that day and gave it up late. Stirke The Moon owns a win over this surface but this is her first try going two turns. My Selections 1-Canadian Mistress-if I knew this was their spot I would single her here 2-Awesomemundo-regally bred sort and her connections have big plans fo her 3-Absinthe Minded-will try to beat her for top spot as I think she is vulnerable Wagering Strategies $-50.00-Win-1 $-1.00-Pick-3-(1,5/3,5,9,11/6,7,9)-$-24.00 |
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Pimlico - May 19, 2012
Race 11 - 5:18 PM EXACTA, 50 cent TRIFECTA & 10 cent SUPERFECTA / DAILY DOUBLE (RACES 11 & 12) 50 cent PICK 3 (RACES 11-12-13)
Purse $300,000. For Three-Year-Olds And Upward. By subscription of $100. $1,500 to pass the entry box, $1,500 additional to start, with $300,000 Guaranteed, of which 60% to the winner, 20% to second, 10% to third, 6% to fourth, 3% to fifth and 1% to sixth. Supplemental nominations of $3,000 each will be accepted by the usual time of entry with all other fees due as noted. Weights: Three-Year-olds, 120 Lbs.; Older 124 Lbs.; Non-winners of $100,000 at one mile or over in 2012, allowed 2 Lbs.; $75,000 at one mile or over in 2012, allowed, 4 Lbs. $60,000 at one mile or over in 2012, 6 Lbs. (Maiden Claiming and Starter races not considered in estimating allowances). Trophy to the owner of the winner. Nominations closed Tuesday May 8, 2012 with 39 nominations. (If deemed inadvisable by management to run this race on the Turf course, it will be run on the main track at One Mile and One Eighth). One And One Eighth Miles. (Turf)
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Owners: 1 - Clark O. Brewster; 2 - Sagamore Farm; 3 - Roger J. Weiss; 4 - Richard Santulli; 5 - Stone Farm; 6 - Reddam Racing LLC; 7 - Augustin Stable; 8 - Stronach Stable, Inc.; 9 - Stuart S. Janney, III; 10 - Stella Perdomo; 11 - Gary & Mary West
Breeders: 1 - Kinsman Farm; 2 - Rose Hill Farm Inc.; 3 - Jay W. Bligh; 4 - Gallagher's Stud; 5 - Stone Farm; 6 - Grapestock LLC; 7 - George Strawbridge Jr.; 8 - Adena Springs; 9 - Stuart S. Janney, III LLC; 10 - Fittocks Stud; 11 - Colts Neck Stables, LLC
Equipment Changes: 6 - Boxeur des Rues - Blinkers off
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This race which preceeds the Preakness is another scramble that has a chock full of horses who can win this outing. Smart Bid is the favorite at 7-2 but comes off a very flat effort in the Mervin Muniz at the Fair Grounds in his most recent effort. The question here is can he turn it around? Logically he fits this race but there are some questions that dog me on this guy. Casino Host won the Mervin Muniz on the other hand and seems on the upswing unlike Smart Bid. His running style fits this race like a glove as there is not much pace apparent here. The only downside on this guy is the big shift in weights against classy animals. Otherwise he is one who figures big. Air Support is very much a solid contender and you can draw a line through his comeback race at Keeneland. There he threw a shoe in the paddock and the blacksmith could not put it on so he had to run with his back legs barefoot. Obviously that did not work out. This guy won the Virginia Derby at Colonial Downs last July so the class and talent are there for him to be a big factor here. Hudson Steele has won three of his last four outings and his most recent win came here at Pimlico as he took down the Henry Clark Stakes off an 11 month layoff. Trend has been finished in the place position a whopping eight times in 14 career outings but also boasts two Grade-3 stakes scores this past winter at Gulfstream. My Selections 1-Hudson Steele-likes this course and is in great form, the one for me 2-Air Support-on his best he can win this contest and also tough to leave out 3-Trend-kind of hard to dismiss a horse who consistently finds the board Wagering Strategies $-10.00-Win/Place-3 $-1.00-Exacta-Box-(3,5,9,11)-$-24.00 |
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Pimlico - May 19, 2012
Race 12 - 6:18 PM EXACTA, 50 cent TRIFECTA & 10 cent SUPERFECTA / DAILY DOUBLE (RACES 12 & 13 ) SUPER HIGH 52nd HALF OF PIMLICO SPECIAL / PREAKNESS DOUBLE
Purse $1,000,000. For Three-Year-Olds, $10,000 To Pass The Entry Box, Starters To Pay $10,000 Additional. 60% of the purse to the winner, 20% to second, 11% to third, 6% to fourth and 3% to fifth. Weight 126 pounds for Colts and Geldings. A replica of the Woodlawn Vase will be presented to the winning owner to remain his or her personal property. One And Three Sixteenth Miles.
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Owners: 1 - Sagamore Farm; 2 - J.W. Singer LLC; 3 - Kidwells Petite Stable; 4 - Winter Park Partners; 5 - Team Valor International & Mark Ford; 6 - Heinz Steinmann; 7 - Zayat Stables LLC & Michel and Tiffany Moreno; 8 - Bob & Cathy Zollars; 9 - Reddam Racing LLC; 10 - Bluegrass Hall LLC; 11 - Albaugh Family Stables LLC
Breeders: 1 - River Bend Farm, Inc.; 2 - Royal Pegasus; 3 - Sequel Thoroughbreds LLC &A. Lakin & Sons Inc; 4 - Anthony Grey; 5 - James Patrick Delaney; 6 - James C. Weigel; 7 - Audley Farm Inc.; 8 - Patricia Ann Elia Trust; 9 - Harvey Clarke; 10 - Bluegrass Hall, LLC; 11 - Soc. Agr. Santa ElenaDe Chimbarongo Ltd.
Equipment Changes: 1 - Tiger Walk - Blinkers On
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And now it is the 137th running of the Preakness Stakes, the most unpredictable leg of racing's Triple Crown. A field of 11 will attempt to put their names into history. In the case of I'll have Another, he looks to keep his Triple Crown dream alive here folowing a determined score in the Kentucky Derby. But the wise guys suggest Bodemeister is the one who can deny him here. Tiger Walk is one of six new Triple Crown shooters and looks like a rank outsider here as his best just does not measure up to the main body of contenders in here. He is an easy throwout for me. Teeth of the Dog is a wild-card type for me as his connections have exuded confidence with this guy. Off a maiden score, this guy was a competitive third in the Wood Memorial behind Gemologist and Alpha and off of that effort he is here with a chance to crash the exotics with his best effort. His versatility helps him out here so he is not without a chance. Pretension is another new shooter who absolutely has no chance based on his form. I have no idea why his connections put him here. Zetterholm has won three consecutive starts but is stepping into much deeper waters in contesting this race. I admire the nobility of trying here but he like most appear to come up short in the class department. Went The Day Well is a wiseguy horse, especially for those that are getting sucked into that big closing effort he put forth in the Kentucky Derby. He has top-tier connections but what ultimately will do him in is the apparent lack of speed in the field as it looks like Bodemeister will control the tempo. The fractions theoretically should not be as dazzling as they were in the Derby. This guy has a big kick but I fear it will be for naught in this one. Creative Cause was my choice to win the Kentucky Derby where he finished a troubled 5th. This guy was 5-wide for a majority of the race and made a huge move on the turn but in doing so was floated to the 8 or 9 path by the eventual winner. I have been a fan of this guy since he started his career but this race to me has no excuses. He should sit a golden trip and pounce on the speed. The only question is, will Bodemeister back up when this guy makes his move? As I pointed out a few days ago, it mystifies me why his connections did not ship straight here following the Derby. Two plane trips across the country in less than two weeks is not ideal for a human, let alone a horse. On talent this guy belongs but some nagging issues bug me. Bodemeister will be making his 6th career start in a fourmonth span and, considering his efforts in both the Arkansas Derby and Kentucky Derby, I wonder if he has enough gas in the tank here. The pace scenario is an absolute dream for this guy but he is not the slam dunk that most experts will tell you he is because if he tries to slow down on the lead then that means I'll Have Another and Creative Cause primarily will be right off his flank. His best chance is to create separation and hope the Pimlico speed gods carry him home. I think this guy is extremely talented but I will try and beat him for win honors because of how this race may materialize. Daddy Nose Best was an 11th hour commit to the Preakness and normally I do not question what his trainer Steve Asmussen does because the guy just wins. I thought he was a non-player in the Kentucky Derby and I was proven right. He took a good bit of wise guy money that day but it was for naught. I personally do not find this guy has a chance here and he will not dot my tickets. I'll Have Another won the Kentucky Derby and left immediately for Pimlico, a very astute move by his connections. I don't think the different pace scenario will compromise this guy as he has proven he can lay close and still finish well. Having said that, the pressure increases on his young rider, Mario Gutierrez, who now has the task of keeping a chance at history alive as he pursues a Triple Crown. Gutierrez was flawless in his ride in the Derby and I believe he is capable of keeping his nerves on ice here. Optimizer ran 11th in the Kentucky Derby and really I just cannot understand why his connections are even trying this contest. This horse is regally bred for the grass and if this were me I would not be here and I would have him freshened for a grass campaign. There are lots of options on the grass for this guy. Again, he just does not belong here. Cozzetti is another new shooter who on talent and class falls woefully short. He is another who should go back to grass racing as that to me is where his future lies. My Selections 1-Creative Cause-still believe in this guy and he will have a garden trip 2-I'll Have Another-absolute must use as he is very versatile in here 3-Bodemeister-pace scenario should benefit him but dont believe he holds on 4-Teeth Of The Dog-the only new shooter who has an outsiders chance Wagering Strategies $-50.00-Win-6 $-1.00-Exacta Box-(2,6,7,9)-$-24.00 There you have it -- my breakdown of these races now complete. I have invested $568.00 of the 825.50 budget that I had left from Derby day. The weather should be absolutely gorgeous and there will be no excuses as the track will be fast and the grass will be firm. As a fan I probably speak for a lot of you in saying that I'll Have Another will be the one we will root for to keep the Triple Crown dream alive but as a gambler there is obviously a different take. Nevertheless it should be a great day of racing. Stay tuned as I will have a full recap of Preakness day next week but until then, may your winners be plentiful and your wallets be fat. |
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