2012 Kentucky Derby Day Preview & Selections

After an interesting Friday at Churchill Downs where we had everything from a track record to a torrential rain storm, we now move on to the biggest day in our sport.

For the 138th Kentucky Derby, the weather for the most part should be fine with only a 20 percent chance of rain in the forecast but it will be abnormally hot as temperatures could push 90 degrees.

Yours truly had a solid day on Friday with the mythical 1,000 dollar budget. I hit the superfecta in the first stake race on the card as Juanita shocked at 18-1 in the La Troienne. She led a superfecta that paid over 535 dollars. I was close in the other races but couldn't deliver. But I struck again as I had the trifecta correctly predicted as my box came through.

Believe You Can scored in the Oaks giving her rider Rosie Napravnik a well-deserved win after the tough beat she took in last year's Oaks. I didn't have her to win but as I mentioned she was a part of my trifecta that paid 263.70 for a dollar.

With all that I came out ahead by a count of 202.10, so I will have 1202.10 to use as I try to finish on the positive side of the ledger. It was a good start but I want to give you much more and with that here now is my look at the supporting stakes and also my look at the Kentucky Derby.

Churchill Downs - May 5, 2012

Race 6 - 1:19 PM Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Daily Double / Pick 3 (Races 6-7-8) Pick 6 (Races 6-11)

STAKES

Twin Spires Turf Sprint S. (Grade III)

Purse $125,000. For Four Year Olds And Upward.Five Furlongs. (Turf)

P#	PP	Horse	A/S	Med	Jockey	Wgt	Trainer	M/L
1	1	Santo Gato (KY)	4/G	L	R Bejarano	118	M R Scherer	20/1
2	2	Great Attack (FL)	5/H	LA	J Rosario	120	W A Ward	8/1
3	3	Cactus Son (KY)	4/G	L	R Albarado	118	K P Smith	15/1
4	4	Bridgetown (FL)	5/H	LA	J R Velazquez	118	T A Pletcher	6/5
5	5	City Sage (FL)	4/G	L	C H Borel	118	J G Arnett	20/1
6	6	Stormy Going (KY)	4/G	L	G Saez	118	J A Dodgen	30/1
7	7	Speight the Halo (KY)	6/H	LA	J Graham	118	K Zavash	30/1
8	8	Spinning Move (KY)	5/G	LA	C J Lanerie	118	N J Howard	15/1
9	9	Amanecer de Oro (LA)	4/C	LA	R E Eramia	118	S Duke	20/1
10	10	Great Mills (KY)	4/C	LA	J R Leparoux	120	S M Asmussen	5/1
11	11	Chamberlain Bridge (KY)	8/G	LA	J Theriot	118	W B Calhoun	5/1
12	12	Shabaab (FL)	6/G	L	L Contreras	118	K Vassilieva	12/1

Owners: 1 - Merrill R. Scherer, Dan Lynch and Ken Sentel; 2 - Houyhnhnm Stable (Jeffrey Seder); 3 - Dwight Sprague; 4 - Melnyk Racing Stables, Inc. (Eugene Melnyk); 5 - William J. Sims; 6 - B. A. Man, Inc. (James Osborne) and Richard D. Maynard; 7 - Terry Bruner; 8 - W. S. Farish; 9 - Northpointe Thoroughbreds (Vic and Nicole Topper); 10 - Millennium Farms (Ro Parra); 11 - Carl R. Moore Management, LLC (Carl R. Moore); 12 - Katerina Vassilieva

Breeders: 1 - Kenneth L. Ramsey & Sarah K. Ramsey; 2 - Edward Seltzer & Murray Durst; 3 - Dwight Sprague; 4 - Eugene Melnyk; 5 - Angela Ingenito; 6 - Maynard Farm; 7 - ReZie Farms, LLC; 8 - W. S. Farish and Michael H. Cline; 9 - Thomas B. Early & William G. Andrade; 10 - Millennium Farms; 11 - Eugene Melnyk; 12 - Arthur I. Appleton

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The stakes ledger kicks off with this 5 furlong sprint for older colts and geldings.

Bridgetown is your early 6-5 morning line favorite and he has not run since last August. He ran second in this very race last year to Regally Ready who would eventually go on to capture the Breeders Cup Turf Sprint. Bridgetown is a fast animal but in 5 furlong conests there are plenty others that can amke that claim as well. If you are going to try and beat him, this is the time to do it.

There are some viable options in this contest and one of them is Great Mills. This guy comes off a very tough defeat in the Shakertown in his last outing. I believe this guy is a good sprinter and he should stay that route. He is tractable enough to sit a golden trip here and also is one if need be can set the pace.

Chamberlain Bridge is a classy old veteran who continues to produce good efforts. He suffered from a wide trip in his last out in the Shakertown and if he can establish position early he also has a good chance here.

Spinning Move is a very interesting price play as he has the type of style that can win this race. He is a stone closer who will have a lot of speed to set him up here. He does not have the seasoning or the class of the competition he faces here but his speed figures are on the upswing. If he can progress some more perhaps he can upset here.

My Selections

1-Great Mills-think he prevails in a wild one

2-Spinning Move-big price has a huge chance

3-Chamberlain Bridge-vet runs another good one

Wagering Strategies

$-10.00-Win-10 $-1.00-Superfecta Box-(4,8,10,11)-24.00 $-1.00-Pick 3-(4,8,10,11/2,6,7/3,5,7)-$-36.00

Churchill Downs - May 5, 2012

Race 7 - 2:08 PM Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Daily Double / Pick 3 (Races 7-8-9) Pick 5 (7-8-9-10-11)

STAKES

Churchill Downs S. (Grade II)

Purse $400,000. For Four Year Olds And Upward. By subscription of $300 each, which should accompany the nomination or by Supplementary Nomination of $20,000 each at the time of entry. $2,000 to pass the entry box; $2,000 additional to start, with $400,000 added. After payment of 1% to all owners of horses finishing sixth through last, 62% of the remaining purse shall be paid to the owner of the winner, 20% to second, 10% to third, 5% to fourth and 3% to fifth. Weight: 123 Lbs. Non-winners of a Grade I stakes since November 4 allowed 3 Lbs.; a Grade I or II stakes since September 5, 5 Lbs. The maximum number of starters for the Churchill Downs will be limited to fourteen (14). If more than fourteen entries pass the entry box preference will be given to graded stakes winners (in order I-II-III), then highest 2011-2012 earnings. Any horse excluded from running because of the aforementioned preference shall be refunded the entry fee and supplementary nomination fee if applicable. Starters to be named through the entry box at the usual time of closing. All supplementary nominations are required to pay entry and starting fees it they participate. Trophy to winning owner. Closed Wednesday, April 11, 2012 with 32 nominations. Seven Furlongs.

P#	PP	Horse	A/S	Med	Jockey	Wgt	Trainer	M/L
1	1	Smiling Tiger (KY)	5/H	LA	J Rosario	118	J Bonde	3/1
2	2	Alma d'Oro (KY)	6/H	LA	J Castellano	118	T A Pletcher	10/1
3	3	Apriority (FL)	5/H	LA	R Bejarano	118	D Fawkes	8/1
4	4	Shackleford (KY)	4/C	LA	J L Castanon	118	D L Romans	2/1
5	5	Hamazing Destiny (KY)	6/H	LA	C S Nakatani	118	D W Lukas	15/1
6	6	Amazombie (CA)	6/G	L	M E Smith	123	W Spawr	5/2
7	7	Gantry (KY)	5/G	LA	R E Eramia	118	R Faucheux	20/1
8	8	Will's Wildcat (KY)	4/G	LA	C H Borel	118	J E Baker	12/1

Owners: 1 - Alan Klein and Philip Lebherz; 2 - Bourque Goldstein Thoroughbreds, LLC (R. and M. Bourque and S. and S. Goldstein); 3 - Donald R. Dizney; 4 - Michael Lauffer and Bill Cubbedge; 5 - Westrock Stables, LLC (Joe and Scott Ford) and Barry Butzow; 6 - Thomas C. Sanford and William Spawr; 7 - Brittlyn Stable, Inc. (Maurice and Evelyn Benoit); 8 - Pattons Creek Farm (Michael J. Snyder)

Breeders: 1 - Dr. Rodney Orr; 2 - Fred N. Sahadi; 3 - Donald R. Dizney; 4 - Mike Lauffer & Bill Cubbedge; 5 - Destinaire Farm; 6 - Gregg Anderson; 7 - D. J. Stable, LLC; 8 - Patton's Creek Farm, LLC

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This contest in recent years has produced some fattening payoffs and looking at this group there is a chance it could do so again.

Amazombie is 5-2 on the morning line and considering he is your reigning Breeders Cup Sprint champion it is a mild surprise to see those odds on him.He is making that all important 3rd start of the form cycle and based on his most recent outing in the Potrero Grande which he gave his rider Mike Smith his 5000th career win it stands to reason he should move forward again.

Apriority came oh so close to winning this contest last year and looks appealing at 8-1 but his figures and form are not where i would like them to be. He does have the right running style but he has to pick his speed numbers up a bit.

Alma D'Oro cuts back to a sprint for the first time in his career and at 10-1, I might stab here and I think he will be making late noise here with the expected hot pace that seems signed up.

Shackleford is an interesting commodity as he also will sprint here. I find it intriguing that he does not fit the profile of a sprinter but is not as effective going a route of ground. His speed is more of a cruiser than a sprinter but at 2-1, do I want to take a chance on him here with what is in the field?

Gantry had a sensational meet at the Fair Grounds winning three stakes and garnering horse of the meet there. I think he has a better than perceived chance. I cannot for the life of me understand why he is so high at 20-1. He has comparable figures to the favorites and should not be ignored.

My Selections

1-Gantry-think this one lights the tote in this one

2-Amazombie-will be tough to handle on his best

3-Alma D'Oro-pricey sort also figures large here

Wagering Strategies

$-5.00-Win/Place/Show-7-$-15.00 $-1.00-Pick-3-(2,6,7/3,5,7/7,8)-$-18.00

Churchill Downs - May 5, 2012

Race 8 - 2:59 PM Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Daily Double / Pick 3 (Races 8-9-10) Pick 4 (Races 8-9-10-11)

STAKES

Churchill Distaff Turf Mile S. (Grade II)

Purse $200,000. For Fillies And Mares, Four Years Old And Upward.One Mile. (Turf)

P#	PP	Horse	A/S	Med	Jockey	Wgt	Trainer	M/L
1	1	Heavenly Landing (KY)	5/M	LA	C J Lanerie	118	E Kenneally	15/1
2	2	Hooh Why (FL)	6/M	LA	R Bejarano	118	M L Reavis	12/1
3	3	Marketing Mix (ON)	4/F	LA	J R Leparoux	120	T F Proctor	5/2
4	4	Tapitsfly (KY)	5/M	LA	R Albarado	120	D L Romans	5/1
5	5	Daisy Devine (KY)	4/F	LA	J Graham	123	A McKeever	5/1
6	6	Annabel Lee (FL)	4/F	LA	J K Court	118	K D Schwartz	50/1
7	7	Aruna (KY)	5/M	LA	R A Dominguez	118	H G Motion	7/2
8	8	City to City (KY)	5/M	LA	C S Nakatani	120	J Hollendorfer	15/1
9	9	La Reine Lionne (KY)	5/M	L	J Castellano	118	C C Brown	6/1
10	10	Hungry Island (KY)	4/F	L	J R Velazquez	118	C R McGaughey III	6/1

Owners: 1 - Lally Stable (Timothy C. Lally, et al.); 2 - Estate of Gail Gee (Everett B. Gee, Jr.), Mark Hoffman and Earl Trostrud; 3 - Glen Hill Farm (Leonard H. Lavin); 4 - Frank L. Jones, Jr.; 5 - James M. Miller; 6 - K. David Schwartz; 7 - Flaxman Holdings, Ltd. (Christoph Klemm); 8 - William DeBurgh, Jerry Hollendorfer and Mark DeDomenico, LLC (Mark DeDomenico); 9 - Paul P. Pompa, Jr. and Hidden Brook Farm (James Hall); 10 - Emory A. Hamilton

Breeders: 1 - Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd.; 2 - Gail Gee; 3 - Sean Fitzhenry; 4 - Frank Jones; 5 - J. Reiley McDonald; 6 - Sarah G. Schwartz & K. David Schwartz; 7 - Flaxman Holdings, Ltd.; 8 - Dr. D. Michael Cavey Jr.; 9 - Liberation Farm & Stonewall Farm; 10 - Emory A. Hamilton

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An extremely wide open renewal of the Churchill Distaff Turf Mile awaits as you can make a case for more than half of this field.

Marketing Mix is the early favorite at 5-2 and should be more race fit as she will make her second start off a layoff. Her comeback was pretty nice as she disposed of a solid allowance field in good order. This gal is ultra consistent and figures to be tough in here.

Daisy Devine is the hot horse though in this field as she will look to extend her winning streak to 5 in a row. This filly comes off a stout win in the Jenny Wiley in her most recent outing. Her last defeat came last year at Indiana to Juanita who stunned the La Troienne on Friday defeating Plum Pretty.This is a must use for any multirace gimmicks in this one.

Aruna fell short in the Jenny Wiley in her most recent out but that race could be deemed a toss out as she might not have liked the synthetic surface that day. The weight shift with Daisy Devine could propel this gal here. She does own some back class as well and she is honest as the day is long.

My Selections

1-Aruna-slight edge here in a real tough one to call

2-Daisy Devine-just too good right now to leave out

3-Marketing Mix-lukewarm fave is also one to consider

Wagering Strategies

$-1.00-Trifecta Box-3,5,7-$-6.00 $-1.00-Pick-3-(3,5,7/7,8/2,4)-$-12.00 $-1.00-Pick-4-(3,5,7/7,8/2,4/4,8,15,16,18)-$-60.00

Churchill Downs - May 5, 2012

Race 9 - 3:49 PM Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Daily Double / Pick 3 (Races 9-10-11)

STAKES

Humana Distaff S. (Grade I)

Purse $300,000. For Fillies And Mares, Four Years Old And Upward. By subscription of $300 each, which should accompany the nomination or by Supplementary Nomination of $15,000 each by the time of entry. $1,500 to pass the entry box; $1,500 additional to start, with $300,000 added. After payment of 1% to all owners of horses finishing sixth through last, 62% of the remaining purse shall be paid to the owner of the winner, 20% to second, 10% to third, 5% to fourth, 3% to fifth. Weight: 123 Lbs. Non-winners of a Grade I stakes since November 3 allowed 3 Lbs.; a Grade II stakes or $60,000 since November 3, 5 Lbs. The maximum number of starters for the Humana Distaff will be limited to fourteen (14). If more than fourteen (14) entries pass the entry box preference will be given to graded stakes winners (in order I-II-III), then highest 2011-2012 earnings. Any horse excluded from running because of the aforementioned preference shall be refunded the entry fee and supplementary nomination fee if applicable. Starters to be named through the entry box at the usual time of closing. All supplementary nominations are required to pay entry and starting fees if they participate. Trophy to winning owner given by Humana. Closed Wednesday, April 11, 2012 with 25 nominations. Seven Furlongs.

P#	PP	Horse	A/S	Med	Jockey	Wgt	Trainer	M/L
1	1	Magical Feeling (KY)	6/M	LA	R Alvarado, Jr.	120	A Iwinski	30/1
2	2	Fantasy of Flight (KY)	4/F	LA	J R Velazquez	118	J P Terranova, II	30/1
3	3	Sassy Image (KY)	5/M	LA	R Albarado	118	D L Romans	5/2
4	4	Salty Strike (KY)	4/F		J R Leparoux	118	K G McPeek	15/1
5	5	Mildly Offensive (KY)	4/F	L	J Rosario	118	C Gaines	20/1
6	6	Groupie Doll (KY)	4/F	L	R Maragh	123	W Bradley	5/2
7	7	Switch (KY)	5/M	LA	M E Smith	118	J W Sadler	2/1
8	8	Musical Romance (FL)	5/M	L	J C Leyva	123	W A Kaplan	4/1
9	9	Hot Summer (VA)	4/F	LA	R Bejarano	118	D Fawkes	20/1

Owners: 1 - Peter E. Blum Thoroughbreds, LLC (Peter E. Blum); 2 - IEAH Stables and Resolute Group Stables; 3 - Jerry Romans; 4 - Craig B. Singer; 5 - Warren B. Williamson; 6 - Fred F. Bradley, William B. Bradley, Carl Hurst and Brent Burns; 7 - C R K Stable (Lee Searing); 8 - Pinnacle Racing Stable (Adam Lazarus) and William A. Kaplan; 9 - Harold L. Queen

Breeders: 1 - Peter E. Blum; 2 - Kim Nardelli & Rodney Nardelli; 3 - J C Davis Farm Inc; 4 - Craig B. Singer; 5 - WinStar Farm, LLC; 6 - Fred Bradley & William Bradley; 7 - Calumet Farm; 8 - Ocala Stud; 9 - Lazy Lane Farms, Inc.

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A very strong renewal of this contest beckons and there are a myriad of ways to figure how this race will play out.

The early favorite at 2-1 is Switch, last seen finishing 2nd to Musical Romance in last year's Breeders Cup Filly and Mare Sprint. This is an extremely tough spot for her return to the races but she is one whom you have to think will be tough here.

Sassy Image absolutely loves Churchill Downs as she has notched five wins in six outs on this course.This gal was last seen in the Ballerina at Saratoga last August where she was injured and like Switch this is a tough spot for a return. This gal won this race last year at a big price and there is no way you will get than price on her here.

Musical Romance is one to figure here as she has maintained her consistent form following her upset win in last year's Breeders Cup Filly and Mare Sprint.I might be willing to toss her loss in the Madison at Keeneland as she appeared rank that day and was never relaxed. This filly will have the garden trip here and if she is on she will be a load to handle.

Groupie Doll smashed Musical Romance in the Madison and what is interesting about her is that in that race she was running equal weights and won but when she was getting weights in the Inside Information prior she was spotting weight and lost. This filly can reproduce that last out if she is on her game.

My Selections

1-Switch-the weights work in her favor and will fire off the bench

2-Musical Romance-think she can fire another big effort with these

3-Sassy Image-if there is a pace meltdown then this one will be tough

Wagering Strategies

$-100.00-Win-7 $-1.00-Pick-3-(7,8/2,4/4,8,15,16,18)-$-20.00

Churchill Downs - May 5, 2012

Race 10 - 4:44 PM Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Daily Double / Pick 3 (Races 10-11-12) Pick 4 (Races 10-11-12-13)

STAKES

Woodford Reserve Turf Classic S. (Grade I)

Purse $500,000. For Four Year Olds And Upward.One And One Eighth Miles. (Turf)

P#	PP	Horse	A/S	Med	Jockey	Wgt	Trainer	M/L
1	1	Little Mike (FL)	5/G	LA	J Bravo	120	D L Romans	8/1
2	2	Turallure (KY)	5/H	L	J R Leparoux	120	C Lopresti	5/2
3	3	Boxeur des Rues (KY)	4/C	LA	M Gutierrez	118	D F O'Neill	30/1
4	4	Get Stormy (KY)	6/H	LA	R A Dominguez	124	T M Bush	6/1
5	5	Slim Shadey (GB)	4/G	L	D R Flores	122	S Callaghan	20/1
6	6	Doubles Partner (FL)	5/H	LA	J Castellano	120	T A Pletcher	4/1
7	7	Data Link (KY)	4/C	L	A O Solis	124	C R McGaughey III	4/1
8	8	Turbo Compressor (FL)	4/R	LA	R Bejarano	118	T A Pletcher	6/1
9	9	Al Khali (KY)	6/R	LA	C S Nakatani	118	W I Mott	15/1
10	10	Brilliant Speed (FL)	4/C	LA	J R Velazquez	120	T Albertrani	12/1
11	11	Papaw Bodie (KY)	5/G	LA	J Rosario	120	M J Maker	30/1

Owners: 1 - Priscilla Vaccarezza; 2 - Four D Stables (Donna C. Arnold); 3 - Reddam Racing, LLC (J. Paul Reddam); 4 - Sullimar Stable (Mary A. Sullivan); 5 - Phil Cunningham; 6 - WinStar Farm, LLC (Kenny Troutt); 7 - Stuart S. Janney, III; 8 - P and G Stable (Nerina Morales) and Off the Hook, LLC (Carlos Morales); 9 - Brous Stable (Nils Brous) and Wachtel Stable (Adam Wachtel); 10 - Live Oak Plantation (Mrs. Charlotte C. Weber); 11 - Connie M. Apostelos

Breeders: 1 - Carlo E. Vaccarezza; 2 - Four D Stables; 3 - Grapestock LLC; 4 - Mary A. Sullivan; 5 - P. M. Cunningham; 6 - Arthur I. Appleton; 7 - Stuart S. Janney, III LLC; 8 - Bridlewood Farm; 9 - Emory A. Hamilton; 10 - Live Oak Stud; 11 - Omega Farm, B.D. Gibbs Farm. LLC &Chancey Mill Farm

Equipment Changes: 3 - Boxeur des Rues - Blinkers On

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The race that always preceds the Kentucky Derby drew a robust field of 11 and your early favorite is Turallure who will be flying from the rear of the field. There is a lot of gate speed signed up for this and this guy almost ran down Court Vision in last year's Breeder's Cup Turf. I like how this guy has progressed since that effort and he should be ultra tough.

Get Stormy won this race last year on a loose lead but he will not have near the cushion he had that day. He is a quality sort than on his best can take this and he is more race fit after the last out in which he needed but he must overcome the disadvantageous pace scenario.

Maybe the fastest of the speed horses is Little Mike and if he can somehow sprint to a clear lead then he just might get brave and hold off the calvary late.This guy does not have the class background as the others here and that could come back to bite him with this robust group.

Doubles Partner continues to increase his speed figures and he might be ready for a breakthrough effort against this strong cast. I think he has a real shot wth these and he loves this course having won two of three lifetime efforts here. He will have first crack at the speed and he could just be good enough late.

My Selections

1-Turallure-mows them all down in style

2-Doubles Partner-has a big chance too

3-Get Stormy-capable if left alone up front

Wagering Strategies

$-50.00-Win-2 $-20.00-Exacta Box-(2,4)-$40.00

Churchill Downs - May 5, 2012

Race 11 - 6:24 PM Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Daily Double / Pick 3 (Races 11-12-13) Super Hi-5

STAKES

Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (Grade I)

Purse $2,000,000. For Three Year Olds With An Entry Fee Of $25,000 Each And A Starting Fee Of $25,000 Each.One And One Fourth Miles.

P#	PP	Horse	A/S	Med	Jockey	Wgt	Trainer	M/L
1	1	Daddy Long Legs (KY)	3/C	LA	C O'Donoghue	126	A P O'Brien	30/1
2	2	Optimizer (KY)	3/C	LA	J K Court	126	D W Lukas	50/1
3	3	Take Charge Indy (KY)	3/C	L	C H Borel	126	P B Byrne	15/1
4	4	Union Rags (KY)	3/C	LA	J R Leparoux	126	M R Matz	9/2
5	5	Dullahan (KY)	3/C	LA	K J Desormeaux	126	D L Romans	8/1
6	6	Bodemeister (VA)	3/C	LA	M E Smith	126	B Baffert	4/1
7	7	Rousing Sermon (CA)	3/C	LA	J Lezcano	126	J Hollendorfer	50/1
8	8	Creative Cause (KY)	3/C	L	J Rosario	126	M Harrington	12/1
9	9	Trinniberg (KY)	3/C	L	W Martinez	126	B Parboo	50/1
10	10	Daddy Nose Best (KY)	3/C	LA	G K Gomez	126	S M Asmussen	15/1
11	11	Alpha (KY)	3/C	LA	R Maragh	126	K P McLaughlin	15/1
12	12	Prospective (KY)	3/C	L	L Contreras	126	M E Casse	30/1
13	13	Went the Day Well (NY)	3/C	LA	J R Velazquez	126	H G Motion	20/1
14	14	Hansen (KY)	3/C	LA	R A Dominguez	126	M J Maker	10/1
15	15	Gemologist (KY)	3/C	LA	J Castellano	126	T A Pletcher	6/1
16	16	El Padrino (KY)	3/C	LA	R Bejarano	126	T A Pletcher	20/1
17	17	Done Talking (KY)	3/C	LA	S Russell	126	H A Smith	50/1
18	18	Sabercat (KY)	3/C	LA	C S Nakatani	126	S M Asmussen	30/1
19	19	I'll Have Another (KY)	3/C	LA	M Gutierrez	126	D F O'Neill	12/1
20	20	Liaison (KY)	3/C	LA	M Garcia	126	B Baffert	50/1
Also Eligibles:
21	21	My Adonis (KY)	3/C	LA	E Trujillo	126	K J Breen	50/1

Owners: 1 - Mrs. John Magnier, Michael Tabor and Derrick Smith; 2 - Bluegrass Hall, LLC (Brad Kelley); 3 - Chuck and Maribeth Sandford, LLC (Chuck and Maribeth Sandford); 4 - Chadds Ford Stable (Phyllis Wyeth); 5 - Donegal Racing (Jerry Crawford); 6 - Zayat Stables, LLC and Michel and Tiffany Moreno; 7 - Mr. and Mrs. Larry D. Williams; 8 - Heinz Steinmann; 9 - Shivananda Racing (Shivananda Parbhoo); 10 - Bob and Cathy Zollars; 11 - Godolphin Racing, LLC, Lessee (Mohammed al Maktoum, et al.); 12 - John C. Oxley; 13 - Team Valor International (Barry Irwin) and Mark Ford; 14 - Kendall E. Hansen and Sky Chai Racing (Harvey Diamond); 15 - WinStar Farm, LLC (Kenny Troutt); 16 - Let's Go Stable (Kevin Scatuorchio and Bryan Sullivan); 17 - Skeedattle Associates (William White); 18 - Winchell Thoroughbreds, LLC (Ron Winchell); 19 - Reddam Racing, LLC (J. Paul Reddam); 20 - Arnold Zetcher, LLC (Arnold Zetcher); 21 - George and Lori Hall

Breeders: 1 - Woodford Thoroughbreds, LLC.; 2 - Bluegrass Hall, LLC; 3 - Eaton Sales; 4 - Phyllis M. Wyeth; 5 - Phil Needham, Judy Needham &Bena Halecky; 6 - Audley Farm Inc.; 7 - Mr. & Mrs. Larry D. Williams; 8 - James C. Weigel; 9 - J M Stables, Inc.; 10 - Patricia Ann Elia Trust; 11 - Darley; 12 - Spendthrift Farm LLC; 13 - James Patrick Delaney; 14 - Dr. Kendall Hansen; 15 - G. Watts Humphrey Jr. & Louise IrelandHumphrey Revocable Trust - 2; 16 - Emory A. Hamilton; 17 - Skeedattle Associates; 18 - Lantern Hill Farm LLC, William J. PunkJr. & Lighthouse Group LLC; 19 - Harvey Clarke; 20 - William A. Carl Estate; 21 - K & G Stables

Equipment Changes: 13 - Went the Day Well - Blinkers On;20 - Liaison - Blinkers On

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And now it is time for the main event of our weekend, the 138th running of the Kentucky Derby.A field of 20 horses as per usual will greet the starter for this monstorous race. All the hopes and dreams are at stake here as everyone associated with each horse is hoping that they wear the roses when it is said and done and move on to Baltimore for the Preakness to try and take a step to immortality via the Triple Crown.

Daddy Long Legs comes in off a stirring win in the UAE Derby and he has timeform ratings that suggest that he can win this but what discourages me is flew in just this Tuesday and stayed in quarantine until Friday.He has the right running style for this race but that he just got here bothers me.

Optimizer prior to the Arkansas Derby was thought to be a possible win player here but he got demolished by Bodemeister that day and he is now an afterthought here. His trainer D. Wayne Lukas was hopeful of making it to the Derby and his ticket was punched when Mark Valeski withdrew. I personally dont see this guy as a contender.

Take Charge Indy ran a bangup race in winning the Florida Derby and he does have rider Calvin Borel who has won three of the last five Kentucky Derbies and that alone makes him a player. This guy has the best breeding top to bottom and he does not need the lead.I think he can sit a good trip and if he is good enough then he will run on. I am doing the Mitt Romney with this horse and flip flopping.

Union Rags is the most maligned horse here based on his loss in the Florida Derby and his rider Julien Leparoux also has been criticized for his ride that day. Most were screaming for a change but I was not one of them. I believe Leparoux was a victim of circumstance that day and he learned a ton about this horse. It would be a mistake to throw this guy off any tickets you make.The only questions for me are his breeding is telling me he cant get this distance and he has not improved his speed figures from last year. I think if we see the good Union Rags he factors.

Dullahan is one who will be flying from the back and he will get a dream pace setup. I liked his finish in the Blue Grass which he won but was it a byproduct of Hansen's inability to finish or did this guy turn a corner. He is 0 for 3 at Churchill Downs and to me he is a gross underlay. I think this guy is not near as good as some believe.

Bodemeister comes here off a scintilating win in the Arkansas Derby but remember he needed to win that day just to get here. I wonder if he really is this good. Why you ask? Well remember his trainer Bob Baffert cornered the market in the Arkansas Derby as he also had Secret Circle. Perhaps Rafael Bejarano was told if you couldnt catch up to Bodemeister dont bother. Basically i am saying that Bodemeister ran an inflated race that day and I just dont think he is good enough.

Rousing Sermon will try a one run race here but he is nowhere near the capabilitiles when you look at his speed numbers. He looks slow to me and should not factor

Creative Cause is a hard knocking consistent sort that gives you his best every time he hits the track. For those of you who love Bodemeister watch the San Felipe where this guy zipped by without much exertion. This guy's two defeats came when he had to try and split horses and I have to think they will try an outside trip in the Derby. He drew a great post to employ that trip. Whereas Dullahan and Bodemeister are underlays I think this is an overlay with a huge shot.

Trinniberg is mindlessly enterend in here and for the life of me why his connections are punishing this horse by running him is beyond reason. Trinniberg is a brilliant sprinter not a classic horse and his connections will learn that fact the hard way.

Daddy Nose Best is a possible longshot to consider and specially when he will be one of those who will be rolling from the back. He does have Garrett Gomez who is one of the best finishing riders in the sport and he does have figures that suggest he can take this and he is making the 3rd start of the form cycle so there are positives. The only real knock is he has not run against top class horses on his way here.

Alpha answered a lot of questions in his last out where he finished a determined second in the Wood Memorial to Gemologist. I think this guy is not without a chance but would you be willing to wager on him considering that Ramon Dominguez is on Hansen when he could have stayed here? I like Rajiv Maragh but if given preference Id rather Dominguez.

Prospective won the Tampa Bay Derby but he got whipped by Dullahan in the Blue Grass. Maybe he did not care for the synthetic surface and maybe he bounces back but quite frankly he has no chance.

Went the Day Well will try to give the same connections who won the Derby last year a repeat score but I am not feeling the same vibes of him as I did of Animal Kingdom.I know he is taking the same route but watching his races I just am not feeling him.

Hansen comes into this off a tough loss in the Blue Grass to Dullahan where he controlled the tempo that day.He keeps Ramon Dominguez aboard here but to me I will let him beat me. My first gut of this guy is he is not a horse that can get the classic distances and with speed to his inside and his post you can have him.

Gemologist is one I have maintained my positive vibes of since the early part of the year and he has slowly proven me right and I really like how he rebroke on Alpha in the Wood Memorial. He has the same tenacity as his sire Tiznow and he will have every chance here. I think he is a definite user.

El Padrino was the talk prior to the Florida Derby as one to watch for in the Kentucky Derby.After a average finish in the Florida Derby the bandwagon cleared out in rapid style. I believe he has the looks of a very live longshot and he will be one I will include on all wagers.

Done Talking won the Illinois Derby to book his ticket here but he has absolutely no chance and thats based on the absolute walk of how slow the Illinois Derby truly was. The form from that race shows nothing thus far as Morgans Guerrilla who ran 2nd to this guy ran last in the Lexington in his subsequent start.

Sabercat seems to be on the improve as he ran third to Bodemeister in the Arkansas Derby. remember he did not have to win his outs that he ran this year as he already had his ticket punched thanks to the win in last year's Delta Jackpot at Delta Downs. He is making the third start of the form cycle and although he does not look good enough to win he should be considered for the back of your exotics.he is a tough throwout for me.

I'll Have Another nosed out Creative Cause to win the Santa Anita Derby and he validated his prior effort in which he upset the Bob Lewis at 43-1. The post for this guy is brutal and I am just not sure he can reproduce another effort like the SA Derby. I dont like this guy at all.

Liaison is the 2nd of the baffert duo to start here and I will make it simple for you Mr Baffert. Why are you running this poor horse here? This guy has about as much chance of winning as I do of outrunning Usain Bolt in the 100 meters. Ok thats really outdoing it but truly this guy does not belong here.

My Selections

1-Creative Cause-check my BC Preview from last fall and it will telll you I have been on him to win this race.

2-Gemologist-would be no surprise to me and I love his toughness and grit. I think he has a big shot

3-El Padrino-has comparable speed figures to favorites and why cant he be in the mix for the win here?

4-Union Rags-if you toss this guy you are taking a big chance of him beating you but he hasnt improved speed wise this year and thats why he is 4th to me.

Wagering Strategies

$-50.00-Win-8 $-1.00-Exacta Box-(8,15,16,4)-24.00 $-1.00-Superfecta Box-(4,8,15,16)-24.00

Thats it and hopefully all of you enjoy this magnificent day win or lose. I know I will. I will have a full recap of all the goings on from Oaks and Derby day but until then may your winners be plentiful and your wallets be fat!!!

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